Chaitanya's Random Pages

December 26, 2017

The evolution of ODI team totals

Filed under: cricket,sport — ckrao @ 11:46 am

Over the years one day international cricket scores have been on the rise and this post intends to look into this in some detail. We shall restrict ourselves to first innings scores where the team batting first lasted exactly 50 overs. Hence games greater than 50 overs per team long or where a team was bowled out prematurely are omitted. There are 2349 (out of 3945) such matches according to this query on Cricinfo Statsguru and on average  7 wickets fall over the 50 overs. The plot below shows a scatter plot of the scores over time. The red curve shows that mean scores were steady around 225 during the 1980s and have been on the rise since 1990 so that now the mean score is approaching 300.

scorevstime

Note that the first data point in 1974 corresponds to a game that was reduced to 50 overs per side after originally intended to be a 55 over game.

If we slice the data into eras marked by calendar years of roughly equal numbers of games, the mean score had a slight slow-down in the rate of increase from 2008-2012, then accelerated again in the past five years.

Era Number of matches Mean score batting first
1974-1994 427 229
1995-1999 383 247
2000-2003 368 257
2004-2007 380 267
2008-2012 393 272
2013-2017 398 288
1974-2017 2349 260

The histograms below show how rarely teams score less than 200 runs in recent times when using the full quota of 50 overs. In fact these days a team is more likely to score over 400 than below 200 if using the full quota of 50 overs!

runtotals

Comparing the distribution of first innings winning versus losing scores we find that the mean scores are 275 vs 236 respectively with sample sizes 1392 vs 901 (34 games had no result and 22 were tied). Restricting to the past five years, the median score batting first for the full 50 overs in winning matches is exactly 300.

winvsloss

Interestingly if we break down the runs scatter plot by team, the trends are not the same across the board. In particular England and South Africa have had more dramatic increases in recent times than the other teams, especially compared with India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and West Indies.

runtotalsbycountry

Restricting to the last five years (2013-2017), here are the mean first innings scores for each team based on the match result (assuming they bat the full 50 overs).

Team Result mean score # matches
Afghanistan lost 249 6
Afghanistan won 260 12
Australia lost 295 13
Australia n/r 253 3
Australia won 310 31
Bangladesh lost 263 16
Bangladesh won 275 15
Canada lost 230 3
England lost 282 13
England won 329 22
Hong Kong won 283 4
India lost 282 12
India won 310 27
Ireland lost 244 6
Ireland tied 268 1
Ireland won 289 3
Kenya lost 260 1
Netherlands lost 265 1
New Zealand lost 277 12
New Zealand tied 314 1
New Zealand won 308 27
P.N.G. lost 218 2
P.N.G. won 232 1
Pakistan lost 266 9
Pakistan n/r 296 1
Pakistan tied 229 1
Pakistan won 290 20
Scotland lost 238 6
Scotland won 284 8
South Africa lost 258 7
South Africa n/r 301 1
South Africa won 321 36
Sri Lanka lost 249 15
Sri Lanka n/r 268 2
Sri Lanka tied 286 1
Sri Lanka won 305 22
U.A.E. lost 279 3
U.A.E. won 267 3
West Indies lost 265 10
West Indies won 298 10
Zimbabwe lost 247 9
Zimbabwe tied 257 1
Zimbabwe won 276 1

The England and South Africa numbers stand out the most here in winning causes. Also Australia has a particularly high average score of 294 in losing causes. Sri Lanka has the largest difference (56 runs) between average winning and losing scores.

Edit: The following shows the mean scores in the 100 matches prior to and after key rule changes (still focusing on first innings 50-over scores). Note that in two of the three cases, the average scores reduced.

  1. Restriction of 2 outside the 30-yard circle in the first 15 overs (’92 World Cup)
    03 Jan 88 to 20 Jan 92: 231
    12 Feb 92  to 16 Feb 94: 222
  2. Introduction of Powerplay overs
    13 Mar 04 to 30 Jun 05: 267
    07 Jul 05 to 08 Sep 06: 267
  3. Removal of powerplay, fifth fielder allowed outside the circle in the last ten overs
    17Aug 14 to 24 Jun 15: 301
    10 Jul 15 to 19 Jan 17: 289
Advertisements

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: